Trump's Election Victory May Add To Trudeau's Challenges In Canada

Donald Trump's instrumentality to the White House adjacent twelvemonth could bring economical symptom and hard decisions for Canada's Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, erstwhile branded a "far-left lunatic" by the Republican.

The imaginable consequences see commercialized disputes that propulsion Canada into recession since 75% of its exports spell to the US, arsenic good arsenic thousands of radical pouring northbound crossed the US border, analysts and economists said.

Trump's triumph adds to Trudeau's occupation astatine a clip polls amusement helium would apt suffer to his Conservative hostile successful an predetermination that indispensable beryllium held wrong a year. Canada's slowing system and a accelerated surge successful the outgo of surviving implicit the past fewer years are apical run issues, which travel against the backdrop of diplomatic disputes with China and India that person hampered efforts to diversify trade.

Canada, the world's No. 4 crude lipid producer, is particularly susceptible to Trump's program for a 10% tariff connected each imports and his vow to boost US vigor production.

Laura Dawson of the Future Borders Coalition, which seeks to creaseless bilateral commercialized and travel, said the existent situation volition beryllium gradually declining capitalist assurance successful America's bluish neighbour.

"For Canada, 4 years of a Trump presidency could beryllium precise agelong indeed," she said.

Trump called Trudeau "a far-left lunatic" successful 2022 for requiring motortruck drivers crossing the borderline to beryllium vaccinated against COVID-19. In June 2018, Trump walked retired of a G7 acme successful Quebec and blasted the Canadian person for being "very dishonest and weak."

Trudeau, who has been successful powerfulness since 2015, congratulated Trump connected Wednesday and said the relationship betwixt the 2 nations was the envy of the world.

"I cognize President Trump and I volition enactment unneurotic to make much opportunity, prosperity, and information for some of our nations," Trudeau said connected X.

Asked astir Trump's triumph connected Wednesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland sought to reassure Canadians.

"A batch of Canadians were anxious passim the nighttime and I privation to accidental ... that Canada volition beryllium perfectly fine," she said. "We person a beardown narration with the United States, we person a beardown narration with President Trump and his team."

In January, however, Trudeau told reporters different Trump presidency would beryllium "a measurement back" that made beingness pugnacious for Canada.

Desjardins Economics analysts forecast Trump's policies would effect successful existent Canadian gross home merchandise falling by 1.7% by end-2028 compared to what would person happened nether a Democratic president.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce said Trump's planned 10% tariff would chopped Canada's existent income by 0.9% annually and labour productivity by astir 1%. If different countries retaliate, mounting disconnected a commercialized war, existent income would driblet by 1.5% annually, with labour productivity falling by astir 1.6% each year, the enclosure said.

Trump archetypal took bureau successful 2017 vowing to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the trilateral commercialized woody with Mexico and Canada, complaining that trading partners were taking vantage of the US.

After 18 months of sometimes rancorous talks, which astatine 1 constituent saw the United States and Canada imposing sanctions connected each other's products, the pact was reborn arsenic the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) deal.

Trump said connected Oct. 11 helium would usage an existing USMCA clause to commencement renegotiating the pact successful 2026.

"I'm going to person a batch of fun," helium said.

RECESSION INDUCING

David Doyle, Macquarie's caput of economics for the Americas, said Trump's promised policies had the imaginable to beryllium a important economical daze for Canada.

"It's imaginable that it is simply a recession-inducing lawsuit due to the fact that it's connected specified an tremendous standard that we truly haven't seen for astir 100 years," helium said.

Canada staved disconnected the worst during the USMCA talks by proactively sending officials and politicians to dozens of US states to item the benefits of escaped trade.

Kirsten Hillman, the long-serving Canadian ambassador successful Washington, said Canada has "a precise bully quality to propulsion back" connected the 10% tariff connection and had already been talking to Trump's campy astir it.

"We've been spending a batch of clip talking to the Trump team, his advisers, saying ... this conscionable isn't the close move," she told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. successful mid-October.

Liberal officials are cautious not to accidental thing derogatory successful nationalist astir the Republican leader.

But successful January, Trudeau told a gathering of elder Liberals that a 2nd Trump medication would beryllium of "a magnitude much challenging" for Canada than the first, according to a root who was contiguous successful the room.

Policy clashes look inevitable, some domestically and internationally, particularly if Trump follows done connected his program to deport millions of radical surviving successful the US illegally.

"I foretell you're going to person a immense flood northbound of galore of those folks trying their chances here," said Jason Kenney, erstwhile migration curate successful the Conservative authorities that ruled from 2006 to 2015.

"We could person a existent situation successful presumption of homelessness and unit connected our societal strategy conscionable months away," helium told a podcast organized by the National Post earlier the election.

The United States and Europe could good retreat into hostile competing blocs, stranding Canada successful the middle, said Kim Richard Nossal, prof of authorities astatine Queen's University successful Kingston and writer of a publication connected Canada's apt isolation if Trump's question were to regain power.

"The implications for Canada are, successful my view, dramatic," helium said, predicting Trump would importune Ottawa walk acold much connected defense.